Ranking the 2024 College Football Playoff teams 1-12, from Oregon to SMU

The 12-team College Football Playoff isn't astir the math. It's astir the path. 

That has proven by the information the caller format does not lucifer the last College Football Playoff rankings with the seeding successful the 12-team bracket. That is wherefore No. 1 Oregon — which finished 13-0 — volition person to play the victor of No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 Tennessee successful the quarterfinals. The Buckeyes and Volunteers were ranked No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, successful the last College Footbal Playoff rankings. 

Yeah, it does not marque sense. Here is what the bracket should like:               

This would marque overmuch much sense. However, that is not the bracket we have. When ranking the teams by their nationalist title chances, you person to look astatine the path. 

Some teams person a amended way to the semifinals and nationalist championship. Some teams person a tougher path, but it mightiness not matter. We tried to benignant retired the quality erstwhile we ranked those teams 1-12 up of the College Football Playoff, which starts Dec. 20-21. 

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1. Oregon (13-0) 

• Seed: 1
• Scoring offense: 35.9 ppg. (15th) 
• Scoring defense: 17.8 (13th) 

The way is pugnacious – with a imaginable rematch against Ohio State and a semifinal matchup against Texas the chalkiest way to the CFP title game. Heisman Trophy finalist Dillon Gabriel leads each playoff QBs with 3,558 passing yards, and the Ducks person shown they tin triumph with discourtesy (Ohio State, Penn State) oregon defence (Wisconsin) connected immoderate fixed week. The Ducks are 3-0 against teams successful the playoff field, and Dan Lanning has a squad that could acceptable the modular with a 16-0 mark. They are the squad to bushed successful this playoff. 

2. Georgia (11-2) 

• Seed: 2
• Scoring offense: 33.2 ppg. (29th) 
• Scoring defense: 20.4 ppg. (23rd) 

There are truthful galore variables here. Will Carson Beck (elbow) oregon Gunner Stockton pb this playoff run? Which Georgia squad shows up for the College Football Playoff? Does the acquisition of playing six games against ranked teams help? Georgia was 4-0 against teams successful the playoff field, and determination isn't a signifier successful this format that is going to overwhelm Kirby Smart. A way that would see 2 of Indiana, Notre Dame and Boise State, Penn State oregon SMU? Georgia volition beryllium favored until astatine slightest the title crippled arsenic agelong arsenic the backmost concern is not a disaster. 

3. Texas (11-2) 

• Seed: 5
• Scoring offense: 33.6 ppg. (26th) 
• Scoring defense: 12.5 ppg. (2nd) 

The Longhorns bushed 4 ranked teams – Michigan, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. Those schools combined for a 27-21 record. The twin-bill losses to Georgia person near the cognition the Longhorns can't triumph the large crippled contempt a loaded roster that should get tackle Kelvin Banks backmost for the playoff run. Quinn Ewers had 10 TDs and six interceptions successful those six games against ranked teams. The way to the semifinals would diagnostic Clemson and Arizona State – games wherever the Longhorns would beryllium double-digit favorites. Can Steve Sarkisian get this squad backmost to the CFP semifinals? Yes. After that remains a immense question mark. 

4. Notre Dame (11-1) 

• Seed: 7
• Scoring offense: 39.8 ppg. (3rd) 
• Scoring defense: 13.6 ppg. (3rd) 

The Irish person a location crippled against Indiana and could drawback Georgia with the uncertain backmost concern successful the 2nd round. Notre Dame scored 49 oregon much points successful 4 of its past 5 games, and the defence is loaded. The Irish person divided their past 10 games against SEC opponents, but 2 of those losses were to Georgia. Does Marcus Freeman person the close operation of defense, moving crippled and dual-threat backmost successful Riley Leonard to triumph the program's archetypal nationalist title since 1988? They person to bushed Georgia to beryllium it. 

5. Ohio State (10-2) 

• Seed: 8
• Scoring offense: 35.5 ppg. (18th) 
• Scoring defense: 10.9 ppg. (1st) 

This is the eventual boom-or-bust squad successful the field. We tin spot a first-round exit oregon a nationalist title without reasoning doubly astir it. The Buckeyes were 2-1 against Oregon, Penn State and Indiana – a 3rd of the playoff field. Ohio State has the champion scoring defence successful the playoff, and this squad volition apt person the astir draught picks successful April. That said, volition the hangover from the Michigan nonaccomplishment linger into the first-round crippled against Tennessee? Will Ryan Day spot Will Howard successful the down-field passing attack? Can the Buckeyes expanse Tennessee and Oregon – which would onshore a matchup with Texas? 

6. Penn State (11-2) 

• Seed: 6
• Scoring offense: 33.6 ppg. (25th) 
• Scoring defense: 16.4 (8th) 

Are the Nittany Lions over-seeded? It's astir the path. Penn State volition beryllium favored against SMU and Boise State successful the archetypal 2 rounds, and the Nittany Lions are 32-1 S/U arsenic a favourite since 2022. The lone nonaccomplishment was to Ole Miss successful the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl past season. So, yes, we judge James Franklin tin propulsion the Nittany Lions to the semifinals. From there? Penn State is 0-6 arsenic an underdog since 2022. Quarterback Drew Allar – who has started successful 4 of those games – volition request much accumulation if it came down to a matchup against Notre Dame oregon Georgia. 

7. Tennessee (10-2) 

• Seed: 9
• Scoring offense: 37.2 ppg. (8th) 
• Scoring defense: 13.9 ppg. (5th) 

This is the different broadside of the path. The Vols person each the indispensable pieces for a playoff tally and illustration amended than Penn State. A beardown moving crippled down Dylan Sampson (14,85 yards, 22 TDs) and a top-five defence led by James Pearce (7.5 sacks) tin pb a playoff run. The cardinal is backmost Nico Iamaleava. Can helium withstand the unit of a roadworthy crippled astatine Ohio State? A quarterfinal crippled against Oregon? Tennessee divided with Alabama and Georgia this year. This way is conscionable arsenic hard conscionable to get to the semifinals. This is the truest chaos squad connected this database due to the fact that we judge they are the past squad who could really triumph the full thing. 

8. Arizona State (11-2) 

• Seed: 4
• Scoring offense: 33.1 ppg. (30th) 
• Scoring defense: 21.3 ppg. (30th) 

Is determination a hotter team? The Sun Devils won their past six games by an mean of 18 points per game, and they earned a first-round bye. That helps the Big 12 champion. Cam Skattebo had 2,074 yards from scrimmage and 22 TDs. The Sun Devils person to spell to the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl for their quarterfinal, which would favour either Texas oregon Clemson. 

9. Boise State (12-1) 

• Seed: 3 
• Scoring offense: 39.1 ppg. (4th) 
• Scoring defense: 21.9 ppg. (36th) 

We get to spot the Broncos successful the playoff erstwhile and for each nether manager Spencer Danielson. Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 TDs, but the cardinal volition beryllium businesslike play from Maddux Madsen, who had 22 TDs and 3 interceptions. We cognize Boise State tin propulsion 1 vessel play shocker. Can they get 3 successful a row? It would beryllium the most-shocking improvement of the 12-team playoff. 

10. Indiana (11-1) 

• Seed: 10 
• Scoring offense: 43.3 ppg. (2nd) 
• Scoring defense: 14.7 ppg. (7th) 

The Hoosiers person the highest-scoring discourtesy successful the College Football Playoff, and first-year manager Curt Cignetti has a defence that tin halt the run. If Kurtis Rourke is clicking with his receivers, past the Hoosiers person a existent changeable to marque it absorbing against Notre Dame. Why are we skeptical? Indiana averaged 1.8 yards per transportation against Michigan and Ohio State, and the Irish's defence is each spot arsenic bully arsenic those teams. 

11. Clemson (10-3) 

• Seed: 12 
• Scoring offense: 35.5 ppg, (16th) 
• Scoring defense: 22.3 ppg. (43rd) 

The Tigers won the ACC championship, and Dabo Swinney tin thin connected the acquisition of 7 appearances successful the 10-team era. Clemson is inactive a double-digit underdog astatine Texas, and the Tigers allowed 215.3 rushing yards per crippled successful losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. That volition not clasp against the Longhorns. 

12. SMU (11-2) 

• Seed: 11 
• Scoring offense: 38.5 ppg. (6th) 
• Scoring defense: 20.8 (28th) 

This is the squad that volition beryllium nether the astir scrutiny – particularly successful places specified arsenic Columbia, S.C., Oxford, Miss., and, of course, Tuscaloosa, Ala. The Mustangs are the must-watch communicative of the archetypal circular travels to Happy Valley to look the Nittany Lions. The "Pony Express" montages volition beryllium fun, but Penn State is 18-3 astatine location the past 3 seasons. Winning 4 games would beryllium the eventual Cinderella story.