Trump’s Demand Mexico Stop Migrants and Drugs May Never Be Met

It would instrumentality years, if ever, for Mexico to execute what incoming US President Donald Trump is demanding to debar tariffs: stemming the travel of migrants and drugs implicit the border.

Author of the article:

Bloomberg News

Alex Vasquez and Maya Averbuch

Published Nov 30, 2024  •  6 infinitesimal read

Members of the Mexican National Guard astatine the El Chaparral pedestrian borderline crossing astatine the San Ysidro Port of Entry successful Tijuana, Mexico, connected Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) volition resume commercialized and ineligible question astatine 4 authoritative crossings on the US-Mexico borderline Thursday that were partially oregon afloat closed precocious owed to grounds levels of migrant crossings. Photographer: Carlos Moreno/Bloomberg Photo by Carlos Moreno /Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — It would instrumentality years, if ever, for Mexico to execute what incoming US President Donald Trump is demanding to debar tariffs: stemming the travel of migrants and drugs implicit the border.

Article content

Article content

That’s wherefore Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s efforts to debar a full-blown commercialized warfare mightiness beryllium much astir doing capable for some sides to assertion success.

Even a speedy telephone telephone — 2 days aft Trump threatened 25% tariffs against his confederate neighbour — seemed to alteration the tone: Trump said connected societal media that the Mexican president agreed to “stop radical from going to our Southern Border, effectual immediately.”

Article content

Sheinbaum, meanwhile, assured her constituents that she touted to Trump Mexico’s existing attack to migration, which she stressed respects quality rights, and that a caller woody to collaborate would debar caller tariffs, without providing specifics.

The full speech was reminiscent of Trump’s archetypal term, erstwhile helium threatened to nonstop troops to unopen down the borderline and then-President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador responded by sending the nationalist defender to assistance apprehend migrants. The determination had a constricted contiguous effect, but sent a beardown representation that proved capable to astatine slightest avert tariffs of up to 25% connected each imports from Mexico. 

Trump’s threats person a “dual objective,” said Palmira Tapia, a governmental idiosyncratic presently moving for the authorities of the State of Mexico. The US president-elect, she said, is simultaneously seeking to entreaty to his constituents and fortify his manus successful talks connected migration, drugs and trade.

Sheinbaum besides faces 2 challenges: She present indispensable find a mode to appease Trump to debar tariffs that could deed 11% of Mexico’s gross home product, portion besides avoiding the cognition — astatine home, and successful the White House — that she volition easy crook to demands from up north.

Article content

“She’s talking to Trump, but she’s besides talking to the Mexican public. It has to bash with giving a dignified effect earlier her voters, but astatine the aforesaid clip trying to halt Trump,” said Catalina Perez Correa, a researcher astatine the Supreme Court’s Center for Constitutional Studies. “She’s saying, ‘I’m not going to fto myself beryllium stepped connected by Trump.’ She’s redeeming look successful beforehand of the Mexican public.”

Migration Reality

Mexico has agelong been a stomping crushed for the US erstwhile it comes to migration policy. It’s been tasked nether successive US presidents with beefing up its borderline security, expanding road checkpoints and removing migrants from freight trains they often board. 

Even though migration roseate acold beyond the 2019 levels successful the years aft Lopez Obrador’s amusement of militarizing the border, Mexico has remained an at-times consenting partner, accepting astir of the millions of migrants who were rapidly turned distant from the US borderline during the pandemic. 

But it hasn’t ever been anxious to help: The Biden medication often viewed AMLO, arsenic the erstwhile president was known, arsenic needing predominant reminders of its expectations for him connected enforcement. In 2023, Biden furniture officials adjacent visited AMLO successful Mexico City conscionable days aft Christmas to impulse him to bash much arsenic a grounds fig of migrants reached the border.

Article content

Article content

Under unit from the White House during the US election, Mexico helped it alteration borderline crossings by 65% implicit an 11-month play starting successful December 2023. 

To bash so, Mexican authorities person been detaining migrants successful the northbound of the state and busing them south. There, they are forced to hold until they get an authoritative assignment to use for asylum successful the US — which tin instrumentality months, if it ever happens astatine all. It’s each resulted successful much than treble the fig of apprehensions of undocumented migrants betwixt January and August compared with a twelvemonth earlier, though Mexico has deported few.

Experts person said that’s creating a humanitarian situation successful immoderate of the confederate cities wherever migrants are shipped disconnected to. It’s besides ratcheting up tensions with immoderate locals, who reason that determination aren’t capable jobs oregon resources to accommodate the newcomers.

“What they’re doing present successful Mexico is militarization of the border,” said Perez Correa.

To further trim borderline crossings into the US, Mexico could either transportation retired wide deportations oregon connection much opportunities to migrants successful its territory. Both scenarios look unrealistic. 

Article content

Simply expanding deportations would spell against Lopez Obrador’s argumentation — which Sheinbaum inherited — of trying to code the problems successful their root countries that pushed them to leave, and it would beryllium an disbursal for Mexico. After Sheinbaum’s telephone with Trump, she reiterated her authorities offers migrants options for planetary extortion successful its territory oregon “voluntary oregon assisted return” to their countries.

The 2nd enactment doesn’t look feasible either: Most radical privation to spell to the US, wherever they expect to person higher-paying jobs, much household oregon assemblage support, and greater information than successful Mexico.

Chemical Diversions

Deaths related to fentanyl — the cheap, synthetic opioid — person reached epidemic levels successful the US. That’s wherefore reining successful the travel of the cause was connected Trump’s database of demands. 

Should caller past beryllium immoderate indication, involution is ne'er simple. The US apprehension of a Mexican alleged cause person has led to prolonged shootouts successful caller months. And successful immoderate case, immoderate academics reason simply confiscating much drugs means traffickers larn to nutrient more, to conscionable US demand.

Article content

So far, Mexico has worked to amended its method capabilities to observe illicit substances astatine its ports, particularly precursor chemicals and fentanyl. 

“The Navy has provided worldly and unit to each ports for the fulfillment of these tasks, the unit person the indispensable grooming to beryllium capable to observe these substances,” said Captain Jose Barradas successful an interrogation astatine the Manzanillo port, successful the authorities of Colima. “All merchandise that arrives is prone to reappraisal nether strict information protocols.”

Sheinbaum besides picked erstwhile Mexico City constabulary main Omar Garcia Harfuch to pb a caller nationalist information strategy, a determination that was work wrong Mexico arsenic a awesome of her willingness to summation enforcement successful areas wherever the erstwhile medication had been much hands-off.

There’s much that could beryllium done — but it would beryllium hard. Trying to prehend these substances astatine ports is insufficient due to the fact that synthetic drugs thin to beryllium precise small, making them much hard to observe than accepted drugs, said Victoria Dittmar, researcher astatine Insight Crime. Those who nutrient them often innovate with their recipes and usage caller chemicals that are not illegal.

Article content

“Mexico tin unfastened collaboration paths with the backstage sector, with the chemic industry, due to the fact that they cognize perfectly good its proviso chains and the susceptible areas wherever determination could beryllium diversions,” she said. “This collaboration is essential.” 

Mexico tin besides enactment to place intermediaries that link fentanyl producers with chemic suppliers overseas and successful the country, radical who enactment successful definite companies and are authorized to divert these substances, according to Dittmar. 

Still, “the main weakness is not putting request simplification arsenic a priority, to forestall overdose deaths,” Dittmar said. “It’s a shared responsibility. It’s not conscionable the responsibility of Mexico, the US oregon Canada, but it’s an contented that affects the full North American region.”

A elder Mexican authoritative said that the country’s actions to code cause trafficking person moved the federation successful the absorption of the fentanyl crackdown that Trump is demanding. The authoritative cited a caller instrumentality that volition let for coordinated quality efforts that is owed to beryllium implemented adjacent year. 

History Repeats

It’s plausible that successful the medium-term Trump volition little the strength of his threats due to the fact that a commercialized warfare would beryllium the worst lawsuit script for some countries, said Tapia, the governmental scientist. 

Article content

But until then, she said, “Sheinbaum is connected proceedings arsenic to however good she volition do” comparative to her predecessor, who had a respectful narration with Trump and often praised him. 

One strategy that Sheinbaum could pursue: Finding ways to springiness Trump the quality of governmental victory. That was portion of the rationale down AMLO’s deployment of the National Guard — a determination Trump inactive talks astir now.

“We got thousands of Mexicans patrolling our borderline escaped of charge,” helium boasted astatine a caller lawsuit astir his narration with AMLO.

“He’s a socialist,” Trump said. “But these are insignificant details.”

—With assistance from Eric Martin, Carolina Millan and Ramsey Al-Rikabi.

Article content